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County of Middlesex Population Projection 2001 - 2026 Report
Comprehensive Population Projections
for Middlesex County and all constituent municipalities were most
recently completed in 2003. The County of Middlesex Population
Projection 2001 - 2026 Report includes three potential growth scenarios
(Low, Reference, and High). Through the County’s Official Plan Five
Year Review program, the
High Growth Scenario was
selected as the most likely to occur over the 20 year planning horizon.
Population
Projection Report
Cover Page
Appendix A - Detailed Projections - Low, Reference and
High Scenarios
Appendix B - Detailed Tables - Reference Scenario,
Births, Deaths, Migration
Appendix C - Place of Work
Trends
It is expected that the
average household size will continue to decline to between 2.6 and 2.7
person per unit by 2026. This can be compared to 4.0 persons in 1961 and
can be attributed to increasing affluence, rising female participation
in the workplace, dropping birth rates, rising divorce rates, delayed
marriages and increasing likelihood of some persons remaining unmarried.
There has been an
out-migration of young people from Middlesex County resulting in a
population drop after age 20 however, that population is restored after
age 35. It was concluded that it is likely the case that young people
leave the County for a time to pursue post-secondary education or other
economic enhancing opportunities but ultimately, many return to the
County.
Projection Methodology
and Limitations of the Analysis
The analysis was based on
a ‘bottom-up’ Cohort Survival Method whereby population forecasts were
completed for each local municipality. The County population represents
an aggregation of these individual populations. A Cohort Survival Method
of analysis uses a model to age the population of a municipality one
year at a time using age specific fertility, mortality and migration
rates.
future population =
current population + births - deaths + in-migration - out-migration
It is important to
remember the limitations of population projections. Projections are
intended to be approximate forecasts that demonstrate general trends.
Population projections are not to be interpreted as exact targets or as
absolute predictions of what will occur and are based on certain
assumptions that can be impacted by external factors.
With any method of
population analysis, there are limitations to the usefulness and
accuracy of the data, primarily based on the accuracy of the base data
used in the model. In this case, Census data was used for each local
municipality for each five year age cohort. This introduces an element
of inaccuracy as cohort level Census data is not considered 100%
accurate because Statistics Canada randomly rounds population figures to
ensure confidentially. This is not an important consideration for large
populations but can be a consideration for very small populations. For
example, as a result of the rounding of Census data, a given projection
could be ‘out’ by as much as 180 people. For a community with a small
population this may represent a significant proportion of the total
population. As a result, projections for small populations must be
viewed with caution. |
